Reading Time: 12 minutes Is Your Job Safe? 20 Careers at Risk in Trump’s Next Presidency
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As we look ahead to Donald Trump’s second term, questions arise about how his policies might affect the job market. His promises of economic growth and job creation contrast with potential challenges from stricter immigration enforcement, higher tariffs, and changes in federal priorities.
These changes could have far-reaching effects on workers, businesses, and industries across the nation. A recent study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics presents a troubling forecast.
It projects that employment could decline by 9% by 2028 under a “high” scenario involving the deportation of 8.3 million undocumented immigrants and retaliatory tariffs imposed by other nations. While these policies aim to reshape the economy, they could lead to major job losses in key sectors.
The following sections will examine specific job sectors that may face difficulties under the next Trump administration. Each section will highlight the unique challenges these jobs face, offering a comprehensive understanding of the risks tied to potential policy changes.
Table of Contents
Oil and Gas Extraction Workers
Jobs in oil and gas extraction are tied closely to international trade, making this sector vulnerable to shifts in policy. Proposed tariffs could lead to retaliatory actions by trading partners, reducing demand for U.S. energy exports.
Workers such as mining engineers, oil rig personnel, and geological technicians may face declining job opportunities if export markets shrink. A focus on reshoring energy production may also impact employment in extraction-related roles.
These factors combine to create significant uncertainty for this workforce.
Manufacturing Workers
The manufacturing industry could face substantial challenges if tariffs on imported goods increase production costs. Higher costs may force companies to reduce operations, putting assembly line workers and quality control staff at risk.
Automotive and electronics manufacturing, in particular, may see job losses as companies struggle to remain competitive. Disruptions in supply chains may further strain the ability to deliver products efficiently, compounding difficulties for the sector.
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This environment creates a complex set of challenges for those employed in manufacturing roles.
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Farmworkers
The agricultural sector relies heavily on immigrant labor, placing farmworkers in a precarious position under stricter immigration policies. Deportations could leave farms short-staffed, leading to reduced harvests and financial strain for producers.
Farm laborers, equipment operators, and other workers critical to agricultural success may find their jobs at risk. Labor shortages may also drive up costs for farmers, reducing profitability and threatening livelihoods across rural communities.
These conditions could reshape the dynamics of the agricultural workforce.
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Construction Workers
The construction industry may struggle with workforce shortages as a result of stricter immigration policies. Many construction projects depend on immigrant labor, and fewer workers could slow down timelines and increase expenses.
Roles such as general laborers, electricians, and plumbers might face reduced opportunities if projects become unviable. Public and private developments may experience delays, affecting job stability for workers across the field.
These potential disruptions highlight the sector’s dependence on a robust labor pool.
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Chemical Production Workers
Chemical production jobs face risks tied to proposed tariffs and trade barriers. The industry, which relies heavily on exports, may see reduced demand for U.S.-produced chemicals in global markets.
Workers like chemical engineers and production technicians could be affected if companies scale back operations to adjust to these changes. Higher production costs due to tariffs on imported materials may also reduce competitiveness.
These combined pressures could significantly impact job security in the chemical manufacturing sector.
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Transportation Equipment Manufacturers
Transportation equipment manufacturers, including those in the automotive and aerospace industries, face potential job losses as tariffs drive up costs. Companies may cut back on production to manage expenses, putting assembly line workers and logistics coordinators at risk.
Trade disputes and changes to international partnerships may also disrupt supply chains, complicating production timelines. Reduced competitiveness could lead to fewer orders and decreased demand for skilled labor.
This sector may face considerable challenges in maintaining its workforce.
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Hospitality Workers
The hospitality industry is particularly at risk due to its reliance on immigrant labor and sensitivity to economic shifts. Staffing shortages caused by stricter immigration enforcement could lead to reduced service levels in hotels, restaurants, and event venues.
Job opportunities for hotel staff, restaurant workers, and event planners may decline as businesses adapt to smaller workforces. Economic uncertainty and reduced consumer spending could further impact the demand for hospitality services.
These combined pressures pose a serious challenge to the stability of this industry.
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Federal Employees (Various Departments)
Proposed changes to the federal workforce could significantly impact employees across government departments. Plans to implement initiatives like Schedule F may result in large-scale job cuts for nonpartisan employees.
Workers in departments such as Justice and Education could face significant reductions in staffing. Efforts to streamline operations may further decrease opportunities within federal agencies.
This focus on reducing the size of the federal workforce presents serious risks to job security for many public servants.
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Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Workers
Electric vehicle manufacturing may see job declines if green energy incentives are reduced or eliminated. Workers involved in assembly lines, battery production, and component manufacturing are at particular risk as demand for electric vehicles slows.
A shift in policy focus away from renewable energy could also impact innovation in the sector. Fewer projects and reduced investment may shrink job opportunities for skilled labor in this rapidly growing industry.
These changes could reshape the future of sustainable transportation.
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Retail Workers
Retail workers may face job losses as tariffs on imported goods lead to higher prices for consumers. Reduced purchasing power could cause a decline in sales, prompting layoffs among sales associates and inventory staff.
Smaller businesses may struggle to compete with rising costs, further limiting employment opportunities in retail. Economic uncertainty could also discourage consumer spending, amplifying the challenges for this sector.
These factors threaten the stability of jobs across retail industries.
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Textile Workers
The textile industry is highly sensitive to production costs and international competition. Tariffs on imported raw materials could make it more expensive for U.S. textile companies to manufacture products, threatening jobs in factories and production facilities.
Workers involved in fabric production, sewing, and quality control may face reduced opportunities as companies scale back operations. Declining competitiveness in global markets could also limit growth and investment in the sector.
These conditions place significant pressure on the sustainability of textile-related jobs.
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Electronics Manufacturing Workers
Electronics manufacturing jobs could face challenges as tariffs disrupt supply chains and increase costs for essential components. Workers in roles such as assembly, testing, and engineering may see a decline in demand as companies adjust to new economic conditions.
Higher production costs could reduce the competitiveness of U.S.-made electronics in global markets, leading to potential layoffs. Innovations in technology might slow as businesses prioritize short-term survival over long-term growth.
This environment creates considerable uncertainty for the industry and its workforce.
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Logistics and Supply Chain Workers
Jobs in logistics and supply chain management could be at risk due to the ripple effects of trade policies. Increased tariffs can disrupt the flow of goods, raising transportation costs and complicating warehousing operations.
Workers such as logistics coordinators, truck drivers, and warehouse staff may experience reduced opportunities as companies adapt their strategies. Delays in shipments and higher expenses may also discourage businesses from expanding supply chain operations.
These challenges highlight the vulnerability of this essential sector.
Healthcare Workers (Support Staff)
Healthcare support staff may face job insecurity if federal funding for healthcare programs is cut. Roles such as administrative assistants, nursing aides, and technicians play a crucial part in ensuring hospitals and clinics run smoothly.
Reduced funding could lead to staffing cuts, limiting the availability of critical services. Smaller facilities and rural clinics may be especially vulnerable, with job losses concentrated in underserved areas.
These changes could strain the healthcare system and impact patient care.
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Education Sector Employees
Public education workers could face significant job risks if federal funding for schools is reduced. Teachers, administrative staff, and school counselors may be affected as budgets shrink and programs are scaled back.
Reduced resources could force schools to consolidate roles, leading to fewer employment opportunities across the sector. Extracurricular programs and support services may also face cuts, further impacting jobs and student outcomes.
These funding challenges could reshape the landscape of public education.
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Public Transportation Workers
Workers in public transportation could face job cuts due to reductions in federal funding for transit projects. Roles such as bus drivers, maintenance staff, and transit planners are vital to keeping systems operational and efficient.
With fewer resources available, transit agencies may need to scale back services, leading to layoffs or hiring freezes. Delays in planned infrastructure improvements could further limit job growth in this sector.
These potential changes could affect both employment and the quality of public transit services.
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Research Scientists (Environmental Focus)
Environmental research scientists may see a decline in job opportunities if funding for climate-related projects is reduced. Scientists working on renewable energy, conservation, and environmental protection could face shrinking budgets and fewer grants.
A shift in priorities away from green initiatives may impact innovation in sustainability-focused industries. These cuts could also reduce the ability of research institutions to hire and retain skilled professionals.
The resulting slowdown in scientific progress could have long-term effects on both employment and the environment.
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Social Services Workers
Jobs in social services may be threatened if government spending on community programs is reduced. Workers such as social workers, case managers, and community coordinators depend on federal support to provide critical services.
Funding cuts could lead to program closures, reducing job opportunities for professionals in this field. Vulnerable populations may face limited access to assistance, further increasing demand on an already stretched workforce.
These changes could deeply affect the stability of social service careers.
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Information Technology Professionals (Government Sector)
IT professionals employed within federal agencies could face job losses as part of efforts to streamline government operations. Positions responsible for managing technology infrastructure and cybersecurity may be reduced or consolidated.
These cuts could affect the efficiency of government systems and the ability to address technological challenges. Federal initiatives aimed at reducing the workforce could disproportionately impact IT teams, limiting growth and innovation in the sector.
This potential shift poses significant risks for those working in government technology roles.
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Environmental Workers
Jobs in environmental protection could be at risk due to cuts in regulations and funding for environmental programs. Workers in areas like waste management, conservation, and pollution control may face fewer opportunities if the government reduces support for these efforts.
With less money available for environmental projects, there could be fewer jobs in conservation and research. Reduced focus on sustainability may also slow down the growth of green technologies, leading to fewer job openings.
These changes could create uncertainty for those working in environmental fields.
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Outlook for Job Stability
The potential policy shifts under a second Trump administration could significantly reshape the employment landscape. Sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and hospitality may face major disruptions, while others like public services and environmental research could see reduced funding and workforce cuts.
These changes underline the interconnected nature of trade, immigration, and federal priorities in shaping job security. Workers across affected industries may need to adapt to evolving economic conditions and reduced opportunities.
The outlined risks highlight the importance of understanding the broader implications of proposed policies. Preparing for these potential challenges will be critical for maintaining resilience in the workforce.
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AI was used for light editing, formatting, and readability. But a human (me!) wrote and edited this.